Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Top Catchers

1.    Walt Burke (HON)
Burke hits for power and average while dominating RHP. He knows the strike zone and works it very well. He’s got a great arm, but is a mediocre game caller.
2.    Malachi Wakefield (HON)
Wakefield hits for power and average. He does a good job driving the ball. Has a good eye. Has an accurate solid arm, and can call a game with the best of the best.
3.    Frank Starr (ELP)
Drives the ball very well and knows the strike zone well. Makes decent contact and has solid power. Not an ideal defender, but can hold his own calling a game.
4.    Enrique Canseco (CHR)
5.    Mel Mays (CHY)
6.    Jean Leonard (ROC)
7.    Morris Evans (CIN)
8.    Peter Chong (CHY)
9.    Rolando Frias (LOU)
10. Dan Mercedes (OTT)

Monday, November 14, 2011

Free Agency Recap

1.        RHP Abdul Helton
Signed w/SYR (1 yr/$4.8M)

A very good signing, one year minimizes the risk involved and comes cheaply.
Grade: A
2.        RHP Vic Francisco
Signed w/CLE (4 yr/$18.0M; mutual option; no-trade clause)
A solid signing as Francisco immediately strengthens any bullpen that he belongs to.
Grade: B
3.        1B Bobby Ray Mercedes
Signed w/ATL (5 yr/$32.2M)
Best hitter in free agency, this contract should expire before he begins to decline.
Grade: A
4.        RHP Kenshin Ogawa
Signed w/LOU (5 yr/$40.0M; player option)
The most controversial contract of the offseason, Ogawa is in decline already and Louisville locked him up for 5 more years.
Grade: D-
5.        1B Pedro Navarre
Signed w/SYR (1 yr/$3.3M)
 A solid hitter, Navarre will anchor an already strong Syracuse offense.
Grade: A
6.        DH Yamid Javier
Signed w/SYR (1 yr/$1.0M)
Solid hitter, although hurt now, this was an excellent depth signing.
Grade: A
7.        DH Torey Acosta
Signed w/LOU (1 yr/$2.2M)
Good signing to help boost an offense that struggled last season.
Grade: A
8.        RHP Raul Saez
Signed w/ROC (1 yr/$700k)
Has the ability to really strengthen a bullpen that blew 12 saves last season.
Grade: A
9.        RHP Jim Phillips
Signed w/SYR (2 yr/$12.6M)
After blowing 15 saves last season, Syracuse is really focusing on strengthening the bullpen and Phillips should be key.
Grade: B
10.     LF Louie Gil
Signed w/RIC (2 yr/$8.1M; mutual option)
Already a strong offense, Richmond improves by adding Gil.
Grade: A
11.     RHP Lawrence Schultz
Unsigned
12.     1B Einar Lopez
Signed w/ELP (2 yr/$4.5M)
A solid hitter, should help to improve El Paso’s offense.
Grade: A
13.     C Rolando Frias
Signed w/LOU (1 yr/$3.2M)
The best FA C really addresses a Louisville weakness as he can both call games and hit.
Grade: A
14.     RHP Vinny Iwamura
Signed w/NB (2 yr/$2.8M)
Solid signing, not much risk here.
Grade: A
15.     RHP Howard Lyon
Signed w/SEA (1 yr/$4.0M)
Very good signing as he should help solidify the Seattle bullpen.
Grade: A
16.     RHP Edgard Santana
Signed w/ARI (3 yr/$16.2M)
Another good signing, should provide plenty of quality innings and is still young.
Grade: B
17.     RHP Willie Cela
Signed w/MNT (2 yr/$3.2M)
An “old” pro, Cela’s signing does provide experience at a good price.
Grade: B
18.     3B Scott Charleston
Signed w/JAC (3 yr/$20.8M; mutual option)
Although rated as a SS, he can hit well enough to be a factor at 3B.
Grade: B
19.     RHP Ruben Morales
Signed w/CLE (2 yr/$5.2M)
A very good value signing.
Grade: B
20.     LHP Rex Wheat
Signed w/PHI (5 yr/$44.0M; team option)
Did Philadelphia overpay for a wild pitcher with some talent?
Grade: C

Monday, November 7, 2011

Top FA By Position


Top FA C
1.       Rolando Frias (RIC)
Hits for contact with some power. Drives the ball with some authority. Has a good eye. Strong arm, decent accuracy. Decent game-caller.
2.       Larry Montague (MNT)
Average at making contact, with some power. Struggles with his consistency. Decent eye. Strong arm, average accuracy. Great at calling a game.
3.       Stan Seneca (LV)
Dominate LHP with some power. Decent at avoiding the strikeout. Average consistency against RHP. Good eye. Fast for a catcher. Solid arm. Average game-caller.

Top FA 1B/DH
1.       1B Bobby Ray Mercedes (LV)
Dominant against RHP, solid against LHP. Good eye. Doesn’t strike out much and will hit some home runs. Average defensively.
2.       1B Pedro Navarra (PHI)
Makes solid contact while hitting for some power. Good against LHP, solid against RHP. Good eye. Average defensively.
3.       DH Yamid Javier (SEA)
Makes good contact. Dominates LHP, ok against RHP. Average power. Solid eye. Defensive liability if he sees the field.

Top FA 2B
1.       Robb Fordham (MNT)
Consistently drives the ball well. Average power, average contact. Solid eye. Sub-par defensively. Good speed.
2.       Sal Latham (PHI)
Makes good contact. Average at driving the ball. Lacks power. Great eye. Solid baserunner with decent speed. Below average defensively.
3.       Chipper Easley (SYR)
Great contact. Next to no power. Average at driving the ball. Decent eye. Great range, but not much else going for him defensively.

Top FA 3B
1.       Tony Davis (CIN)
Drives the ball well on a consistent basis. Average power, average contact. Decent eye. Lacks ideal range, but is solid with the glove. Probably better off at 2B or COF.
2.       Brady Lester (CHR)
Makes solid contact. Average consistency at driving the ball. Solid eye. Lacks power. Solid defensively. Good baserunner with good speed.
3.       Hugh Thurman (ATL)
Solid power, solid contact. Average consistency. Decent eye. Solid baserunner with average speed. Good glove, good arm. Average range.

Top FA SS
1.       Scott Charleston (LR)
Not a true SS, he’d be better off at 3B where he would make a solid defender. He’s good at making contact with solid power. Solid consistency at driving the ball. Good eye. Not much of a baserunner.
2.       Bernie Mendoza (CLB)
Strikes out a lot. Decent power. Struggles against LHP. Solid against RHP. Good eye. Good baserunner with decent speed. Lacks ideal range or arm strength, but makes up for that with good glove and accuracy.
3.       Louis Punto (NB)
Makes good contact with lots of power. Struggles to consistently square the bat to the ball. Below average eye. Solid baserunner with good speed. Good range with solid glove…very good arm.

Top FA LF
1.       Louie Guiel (TOR)
Makes good contact with decent power. Hits the ball well against LHP & RHP. Good eye. Very poor speed. Not a good defender.
2.       Paulie Williams (LOU)
Makes good contact. Lacks ideal power. Solid at driving the ball. Great eye. Not an ideal defender. Great baserunner.
3.       Jerry Fischer (LA)
Good power and contact. Consistent at driving the ball. Good eye. Solid baserunner, decent speed. Not a good defender.

Top FA CF
1.       Patrick Brown (LR)
A defensive specialist. Great speed. Great eye. Poor offensive player.
2.       Victor Randolph (LA)
Lacks ideal range, but decent glove. Decent speed. Makes solid contact with a little power. Better against RHP. Solid eye. Decent baserunner.
3.       Santo Valdivia (MNT)
Makes good contact. Does not drive the ball consistently. Decent eye. Very good baserunner with great speed. Good range, not a great glove.

Top FA RF
1.       Glen Theriot (LV)
Solid at making contact. Decent power. Above average at driving the ball. Decent eye. Solid defensively.
2.       Alvin Petkovsek (CLB)
Average power and contact. Dominates LHP. Solid against RHP. Good eye. Good range/glove, poor arm.
3.       Phil Simms (CIN)
Better against LHP than RHP. Solid power to go along with average contact. Decent eye. Good range and arm strength.

Top FA SP
1.       Kenshin Ogawa (PHI)
One of the best pitchers in the world, Ogawa dominates RHB while doing solid jobs against LHB. Lacks velocity, but does get a lot of groundballs. Solid control. Won’t go really deep into games anymore. Still has 4 good to very good pitches.
2.       Rex Wheat (LR)
Lacks good control. Does a great job keeping the ball out of the hitting zone. Allows a lot of fly balls. Has 4 good to very good pitches. His stamina and control will not allow him to go deep into games.
3.       Manuel Lira (MNT)
Great control, although he struggles some with keeping the ball out of the hitting zone. Great velocity, 1 great and 1 good pitch. Great job at keeping the ball on the ground. Not the best stamina.

Top FA RP
1.       Abdul Helton (LOU)
Great control. Dominates RHB and is good against LHB. Good velocity. Good groundball pitcher. Great pitch, good pitch, average pitch. Lacks an ideal stamina/durability combination to be as effective as he once was.
2.       Vic Francisco (SEA)
Does a good job avoiding bats. Keeps the ball in the strike zone. Lacks the velocity one looks for from the back-end of the bullpen. Has 3 pitches that range from average to very good. Allows a lot of fly balls. Has a good stamina/durability combination.
3.       Raul Saez (PHI)
Lacks ideal stamina/durability combination. Does well against RHB, but struggles a little more against LHB. Lacks ideal velocity. Has 5 pitches ranging from above average to below average. Forces more GBs than normal.

Friday, August 12, 2011

Free Agent Analysis


Biggest Surprise:
Philadelphia signing #12 FA LHP Norberto Dotel…you have a team that finished top 3 in the AL in most pitching categories, yet was middle of the pack offensively, and you expect them to hit the offensive FA  list hard…they grab a top-notch pitcher instead.

Biggest Gamble:
Jackson signing LHP Fonzie Becker. If Becker can stave off his decline, this move will look like a genius move in 4 years. The addition of a $17.0M, mutual option (5th year) was a brilliant move, unfortunately Jackson runs the risk of being on the hook for that $17.0M in year 5 when Becker could be a long reliever by then. The decline of Becker would worry me beyond belief.  

Best Value:
RHP Gill Bechler. Richmond played this right, giving the #9 overall FA 3 years at $7.6M ($2.5M/year). To obtain a reliever with a career 3.39 ERA and 1.14 WHIP for that price is unheard of…especially after watching the money paid to some of the relievers on the market.

Worst Value:
RHP Abdul Helton. Louisville panicked here when they saw the #4 FA still on the market. They could’ve gotten him cheaper and $5.2M is a lot of money to pay for 40-50 IP.

Team that added the most talent:
Louisville. The Steamboats signed a league-leading 5 top 50 free agents. After losing 93 games last season, were these additions enough to stem the tide or should they have been more active in FA.

Team that lost the most talent:
Philadelphia – The Freedom lost a total of 7 top 50 free agents. They managed to grab one of them back in RHP Chris Moeller, but in the grand scheme of things, they lost a ton of talent (14 FA overall).

Top 50 Free Agents


  1. RHP Alfredo Miranda (SEA; 4/$24.0M)
    A good deal on a RP who is going to be dominant when he makes appearances and although his DUR is low, his STA will allow him to pitch multiple innings when he does pitch.
  2. LHP Nick Offerman (HON; 5/$78.2M)
    Paid an awful lot of money for Offerman, but he’s a RP who can dominate batters for 90+ games and 140+ innings. He’s only 31, so he should have plenty of dominant seasons left.
  3. RHP Spud Clarke (ARI; 2/$23.0M)
    Clarke is going to give you some innings and some very good innings at that, but is he worth $11.5M/year?
  4. RHP Abdul Helton (LOU; 1/$5.2M)
    Helton is a great addition to any bullpen, but his DUR/STA combination is going to hold him back some from fulfilling his true potential. LOU overpaid to get him in their BP.
  5. RHP Steve Hudek (CH2; 2/$13.6M)
    Although Hudek has low STA, his DUR will allow him to make multiple appearances. This is a very good signing.
  6. LHP Sal Baker (ARI; 2/$13.2M)
    Although Sal projects as a LR, he’s a very good LR. He’ll give you innings and be a shutdown RP to bridge the gap from the starter to the CL.
  7. LHP Mark Bang (unsigned)
  8. RHP Logan Putnam (ATL; 2/$10.1M)
    Putnam’s splits aren’t as good as one would like, but his other talents more than make up for that and he should really help out Atlanta.
  9. RHP Gill Bechler (RIC; 3/$7.6M)
    To be able to get away with paying Bechler an average of ~$2.5M/year is highway robbery. Even though he’s not as dominant as others on the listed, he’s still very good.
  10. RHP Lawrence Schultz (CLE; 1/$3.2M)
    RP are a fickle bunch, one season they are dominant and the next they stink…This signing protects CLE from having this happen to them.
  11. RF Javier Lucano (NO; 4/$19.2M)
    The best position player in FA, Lucano has a strong arm, hits for contact and has a good eye. His deficiency is LHP. Actually paid less for a better (IMO) RF.
  12. LHP Norberto Dotel (PHI; 5/$57.5M)
    This is a good deal as Dotel still has some years left to contribute and shouldn’t start a decline for a while. If he does decline, he’ll be hard to move.
  13. RF Bruce Cambridge (CH2; 3/$21.0M)
    A little more power, and better against LHP than #11 Lucano, Cambridge gives way to him based on an eye that is not quite as sharp.
  14. RHP Joseph Lee (ATL; 2/$9.9M)
    Lee is older, and isn’t as dominant as he could be, but he’s still good and has 2 good pitches that help him to offset his splits.
  15. 1B Torey Acosta (LOU; 1/$1.1M)
    To get the #1 1B at $1.4M below his asking price is a pretty good deal. He doesn’t hit for the prototypical power, but he should make lots of contact and reach base a lot.
  16. LHP Milt Benton (unsigned)
  17. RHP Brian Zhou (unsigned)
  18. LHP Mark Tomko (unsigned)
  19. LHP Michael Fischer (unsigned)
  20. RHP Howard Lyon (LA; 1/$4.2M)
    Has the stamina and durability combination to be able to survive as a SP, but would likely provide more impact out of the bullpen. Still a very good pitcher at a reasonable price.
  21. RHP Pablo Cruz (CLB; 1/$1.9M)
    A solid pitcher who has two very good pitches and superior control. Lacks great stamina. The price was right here though.
  22. 1B Morgan Johnson (MNT; 5/$23.5M)
    Doesn’t have the prototypical power that you look for at 1B, nor great contact to offset that, but he drives the ball well and can work the count.
  23. LHP Johnny Burks (ARI; 1/$2.8M)
    He’d be higher if he had better pitches, but his splits should still help make him close to dominant.
  24. LHP Fonzie Becker (JAC; 5/$81.0M)
    The #2 SP on the market, Becker got paid. The question is when and how bad his decline will be. It’s really a 4-year deal with an unlikely to be exercised mutual option.
  25. RHP Bill Washington (OTT; 1/$4.0M)
    A good pitcher, who would likely be a better starter than reliever, he is versatile.
  26. 1B Bud Sobolewski (LOU; 1/$1.6M)
    Lacks the power you look for in a 1B, but has the range to spend some time in LF should the need arise.
  27. RHP Bobby Davis (unsigned)
  28. LF Paulie Williams (LOU; 1/$3.2M)
    Makes great contact, although the power is a little low for a COF. He has a great eye, but won’t be a great defender.
  29. LHP John Tomlinson (unsigned)
  30. 3B Steven Griffin (CSP; 4/$38.0M)
    A solid signing as Griffin can field what he gets to and will drive the ball well and hit for some power.
  31. RHP Carlos Melendez (CLE; 2/$8.0M)
    Doesn’t have tremendous control, but is solid across the board.
  32. LHP Glen Pierce (unsigned)
  33. SS Karim Mendoza (TEX; 3/$17.4M)
    The top SS on the market, Mendoza won’t embarrass himself at the plate and immediately solidifies an important position.
  34. DH Souta Park (CLE; 3/$17.4M)
    Again lacking ideal power, Park will make lots of contact, drive the ball, and reach base…he has the speed to beat out some infield hits too.
  35. RHP Mark Hara (unsigned)
  36. SS Robin Scott (JAC; 2/$9.6M)
    A good defender, Scott has a little bit of power to go along with his defense.
  37. SS Charlie Duffy (LA; 2/$4.1M)
    Lacks the range to play SS, but should be an exceptional 2B/3B and has some hitting ability to help out too.
  38. RHP Cliff Torres (unsigned)
  39. RHP Chris Moeller (PHI; 2/$4.0M)
    Won’t walk many, but won’t  face many either, Moeller can make an impact when used properly.
  40. RHP Charles Perez (unsigned)
  41. LHP Pasquel Romero (unsigned)
  42. LHP D.J. Quinn (CSP; 1/$3.3M)
    Great control, does a good job against LHB, his weakness has to be his second pitch.
  43. SS Cla Jennings (CLE; 2/$7.6M)
    Not really a SS, but more of a 2B/3B, he makes some contact and can drive the ball decently.
  44. LHP Denny Belle (MNT; 5/$34.0M)
    One of the top 5 starting pitchers really got paid. His splits are worrisome as he doesn’t seem to have the pitches to overcome them.
  45. LHP Andres Alonso (unsigned)
  46. SS Jared Gran (LA; 1/$4.0M)
    He makes good contact and is alright at driving the ball, but he doesn’t have the overall defensive talent to cut it at SS.
  47. SS Mark Ishii (unsigned)
  48. 1B Hunter Sizemore* (unsigned)
  49. 1B George Borbon (unsigned)
  50. CF Chipper Easley (LOU; 1/$2.9M)
    Tremendous range to go along with good contact, solid ability to drive the ball, and a good eye. Major downgrade here for the atrocious glove.